Consumption remains quite solid, probably the strongest part of the economy. The 3-month moving average has pushed north of 4% into the fall, a quite rapid level and support for 3Q GDP. In year-over-year terms, real consumption has been more stable, but potentially creeping up a bit as well.
Some of that consumption is being met by overseas, rather than domestic, production. Over the course of 2024 real net exports have continually pushed wider, and that accelerated over the last several months. Indeed, the offset from wider net exports is a reason why GDP for 3Q isn’t tracking even stronger than our current estimate of around 2½%.
This commentary is the opinion of Newfleet Asset Management. This material has been prepared using sources of information generally believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy is not guaranteed. Opinions represented are subject to change and should not be considered investment advice or an offer of securities.
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